“One in three people, by the end of the century, will be African. Almost one in two will be born in Africa,” said Zoe Marks in a recent conversation, “Africa’s Urban Future: Cities at the Crossroads of Growth and Resilience” in the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. This continent, she explained, holds “the economies that will be determining the future of humanity.”
Marks is a lecturer in public policy and the Oppenheimer Faculty Director of the Center for African Studies at Harvard. She spoke with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, of Lagos, Nigeria, and Mayor John-Charuk Siafa, of Monrovia, Liberia. Governor Sanwo-Olu and Mayor Siafa discussed the power—and challenge—of a growing population and the economic, political, and cultural potential for their cities and economies now and in the future. We have lightly edited excerpts from their remarks below.
This event was co-sponsored by the Harvard Center for African Studies and the Bloomberg Center for Cities; Siafa and his administration are participants in the Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership Initiative.
“One in three people, by the end of the century, will be African. Almost 1 in 2 will be born in Africa.”
On the challenges and opportunities of a growing population
Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu
Lagos is the largest city in Africa, clearly by population and other demographics: 22-23 million [people]…it’s actually less than 0.3% of the total land mass of the country that hosts over 10% of its population.
On a daily basis, we see about 2,000-2,500 people [migrating] to Lagos…the system cannot catch up with the growing population. In terms of infrastructure, in terms of school enrollment, in terms of level of sanitation, environmental issues—it really couldn’t catch up with the growth that you're seeing in terms of population growth of a city.
Over 30% of the GDP of Nigeria sits in Lagos…year on year, 50% to 60% of our direct investment into the country comes to Lagos, in services, in technology, in infrastructure. So the government must also be business ready. It must be environmentally ready. It must create the needed business environment to be able to attract those investments.
And by the way, over 55% to 60% of our population are between the ages of 15 and 35. So that’s a very active, young population that needs to be given something to do.
While there’s a huge opportunity in the city called Lagos—it is a gateway for our country, it’s a gateway for sub-Saharan Africa—the responsibilities that are expected of government [are] to ensure that Lagos is a city that is safe, that is secure, that is resilient, that is adaptable to shocks and can speak to the needs of the people.
Mayor John-Charuk Siafa
[With] 1.1 million people—Monrovia sits as the capital of Liberia in West Africa. Yes, it is the oldest independent African republic, but it’s a small country, Liberia: roughly 6 million people. The capital city, Monrovia, is experiencing rapid urbanization faster than infrastructure growth.
Monrovia was originally built for a capacity of about 300,000 people. But today, the number has more than quadrupled, [which] puts the strain on the infrastructure that we have.
Liberia itself, in the 1990s, over 20 years ago, experienced civil war. And there was a huge rural to urban migration, and, of course, when people move and settle into the city, you don’t easily get them to move back. So, you have a city that is growing in terms of the economy, but it’s not growing organically, because the migration is not based on economic activities.
Taking over the city of Monrovia [as a mayoral administration], we encounter a number of challenges. We are a coastal city, so coastal erosion, climate vulnerabilities exist. You have an informal sector that is very large, larger than the formal sector. You have a youthful population. Over 65% to 70% of our population are young people.
One of the major challenges [in the] environment is waste management and sanitation issues, because about 60% to 65% of the city has large slum communities, particularly focused along waterfront and beaches.
There’s a mix of problems that we have to tackle. Coming to office, we set out our priorities and the strategic vision that we call “the Monrovia we want.” We built a strategic plan that involved the community, that involved some key actors in the sector. It’s a five-year plan.
We’ve also been working on the city infrastructure. Urbanization, for us, without comparative infrastructure growth is a challenge. Aging infrastructure is a major issue within the city. And to deal with this, we’ve developed a zero draft for a long-term plan. That’s a 25-year vision, and that will be the city’s first long-term plan.
On responding to climate change
Siafa
We currently have an ongoing heat study in our city. It’s a three-month program. There’s a number of spots they’re taking samples from, and we’re looking to receive the data that will help inform us on how we can plan small interventions and big [ones] of course.
A lot of our informal sector—they’re out there [in the heat]. And it’s not only the impact of heat on people, but take, for example, the fruit stalls. They keep [fruit] outside in the open. And because of heat, they get a lot of losses. So the kind of interventions that you would overlook but that are important to the livelihood—that study will also inform that.
Sanwo-Olu
We’ve seen a lot of climate issues now...periods that we thought [were] the dry weather, it’s all rain, rain, rain. That’s because we are below sea level, [which] leads to a lot of urban flooding. And how are we going to mitigate that?
We have a big adaptation and resilience plan, and we set up a full resilience office. We’re also doing studies—two, three times a year. They go out every quarter to see what has been [happening with] ocean movement.
Climate change generally, in terms of adaptation and resilience, in terms of our ability to respond to those changes, are things that we’re taking seriously, and we’re providing needed funding for it.
We have a whole department that sticks to regulations and sticks to processes and procedures that agencies must follow to ensure that we actually can adapt and can respond [to] those challenges. For example, you know, the flooding that I talked about—a lot will change. The whole continent—shoreline protection—how we build those shorelines, on what levels, do we need to build?
And what kind of primary drains are we also creating in the city? Drains that, after a heavy flood in 2031, must be able to recede back? We are doing all of that.
Looking 30 years ahead
Siafa
The plan [for our future] is largely human-centric.
We’re looking forward to seeing, in 30 years, or maybe earlier, a better system, with the buy-in of the people. More participation. We’re looking, next year, to a budget—for the first time—where the communities will have a stake.
We’ve been engaging the communities. It’s been largely in City Hall [in the past]. But this time around, we’re going to put a percentage in the budget, and we’re going to get the communities, and they will tell us what and how they want to be done with that fund.
When you are not just taxing people, but you’ve gotten them directly involved and their buy-in, it makes it much easier for our plans to succeed. So we’re looking at a more functional society. It’s easier to be able to transform lives, to turn around some of those slum communities based on our long-term plan. But that would not be possible if we didn’t have the full participation of the people that we govern.
Sanwo-Olu
We want a city where, if Microsoft [is trying to hire] a hundred thousand tech engineers, among the first three cities you think of, think of Lagos, where you can get those resources. If you think of the city where you can have the best musicians, where you can have the best sound engineers, where you can have the best movie producers, think of Lagos as that city.
Because it’s all, at the end of the day, about our people. How can we use governance, the things we do today, to empower our people to be part of that bigger world? Because it’s all about what the world will be…that, for me, will have been the city I want to leave behind.
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Photos by Martha Stewart