Link to Jeff Frankel's publications at the National Bureau of Economic Research. 


  NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee 

Double Dip watch, 2011:
"Recession Gatekeepers: How a Economic Downturn is Determined," ABC News, Sept. 26, 2011.
"Odds of U.S. Recession Seen Rising by Academic Panel Majority," Bloomberg, Aug 3, 2011.

Recovery watch, 2010:
"The Recession is Over," The Daily Show with Jon Stewart, Sept.22, 2010.
Recession Measurement,” C-span, September 21, 2010.
"Longest Recession Since 1930s Ended in June 2009, Group Says," LA Times, Sept.20, 2010.
"Who Decides When the Recession Ends?"  National Journal Expert Blogs, April 19, 2010.
"NBER Committee Holds Off Declaring 2009 End of Recession Until It Is Sure," links to April 12, 2010, reporting by ABC, Business Week, New Yorker, WSJ, NY Times, Time, National Journal,Atlantic, LA Times, Miami Herald...
"These Guys Call the End of the Recession," The New York Observer, Sept.23, 2009

Recession watch, 2008:

Harvard Prof. Jeffrey Frankel About the Recession CNBC, 
Dec.2, 2008. 
"Recession Began a Year Ago, Making It Longest Since Early '80s, Panel Says,"Wall Street Journal, Dec.2

"How The Recession Compares To Other Downturns," All Things Considered,  NPR, Dec.2
"NBER Declares Official Recession,"  Harvard Crimson, Dec. 2, 2008   
"Cambridge group pegs recession on big job losses: 'R’ word now official," Boston Herald , Dec2
"Even Bernanke can't say what's next,", Dec. 2  
"Recession Dating: Some People Are Going to Be Surprised,"  EconBrowser


, Dec. 2.
" Stocks Pummeled as Recession Becomes Official," PBS Newshour, Dec. 1
" NBER Says Recession Began in Dec.2007," CNBC, Dec. 1.
"Recession Started in December 2007: Panel" Reuters/MSNBC, Dec.1, 2008
"Recession Dating: When in Doubt, Wait for a Crisis," Real Time Economics, Wall Street Journal
"U.S. Recession Started in 2007, Longest Since 1980s,", Dec. 1            
"Recession shadows next president's economic aims," Malaysia Star, Oct. 30 
"U.S. in 'serious recession' Straits Times, Nov. 11, 2008
"Recession arbiter is sifting GDP, jobs data,"   MarketWatch,, Nov. 6
"Specialists: Inaction on Bailout Will Bring Pain" The Boston Globe, Oct. 1
"Econ Professors Lament Financial Crisis," The Harvard Crimson, Sept. 18
"Recession Uncertain, Says NBER Economist, MoneyNews, Aug. 28, 2008
"Jobs data, GDP, Stoke doubt over recession - The official recession call," MSNBC, Aug.1
"Why so long to call a recession?"  Business Week, May 19, 2008
"If it feels like a recession..."  All Things Considered, NPR, Feb.15, 2008  
"NBER BCDC members weigh in"  Wall Street Journal, Jan.24, 2008

Official BCDC Announcements: 

"Announcement of June 2009 Business Cycle Trough / End of Last Recession" Sept.20, 2010.

"No Trough Announced,"  April 12, 2010.

Determination of the December 2007 Peak in Economic Activity, Dec. 1, 2008

NBER's Recession Dating Procedures  Jan. 7, 2008  

Committee declares end of 2001 recession
  July 17, 2003    pic
nnouncement of start of the last recession  Nov. 26, 2001

Chronology of US Business Cycle Expansions/Contractions

BCDC meeting, April 8, 2010


Some media reports on NBER BCDC decisions regarding the dating of the 2001 recession:
"Out of Depth: Can Greg Mankiw Survive Politics?" The New Republic, April 12, 2004.                                          "Experts Date It to Bush; Bush Says It Was Clinton's" Washington Post, March 5, 2004.                                                Business Week article on CEA declaration that 2001 recession started earlier than NBER says, Feb. 23, 2004.                BCDCFortune.jpg (254944 bytes)               

The New Yorker                                          Business Week                            Harvard magazine


Members of the NBER's IFM Program

The Global Financial Crisis: A Selective Review of Recent Research in the IFM Program, spring 2008 to spring 2009.   NBER Reporter, 2009, No. 2.

“Research in the IFM Program,” NBER Board of Directors Meeting, NYC, Apr. 2006. Slides.    1999-2003 Highlights, updated 2006.

Highlights of Research on Emerging Markets in NBER IFM Program, 1999-2003,   NBER Reporter, Winter 2004.    

Program Report, International Finance and Macroeconomics, 1996-1999 NBER Reporter, Winter 1999/2000

        Program Report, International Finance and Macroeconomics, 1992-1993, NBER Reporter, Winter 1993/1994




Project on the Global Financial Crisis (2010-2011)

Project Directors: Charles Engel, Kristin Forbes, and Jeffrey Frankel

Conference held at Bretton Woods, NH, June 3-4, 2011   Summary

sponsored by the Sloan Foundation

Selected papers published in the Journal of International Economics, 
Vol.88, Issue 2,  pp. 215-436, November 2012.  Introduction.

Symposium at the National Press Club, Washington DC, Agenda, Sept. 22, 2011

Introduction to Session III Reducing Country Vulnerability: Capital Controls, Reserves, or Something New?

GroupPhoto1.JPG        final.dooley1.jpg (111286 bytes)    final.edwards1.jpg (109004 bytes)

Project on Exchange Rate Crises in Emerging Market Countries (2000-2002)

Project Directors, Martin Feldstein and Jeffrey Frankel 

From University of Chicago Press, Chicago:

Managing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (with Michael Dooley), 2003.

Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets (with Sebastian Edwards), 2002.

NBER Project Country Conferences on: 

Argentina, July 17, 2002

Turkey, July 18, 2001

Malaysia, February 16, 2001

Indonesia, Sept. 15, 2000

  Brazil, April 14-15, 2000

Korea, February 1, 2000




The 37th annual ISoM met in Riga, Latvia, June 27-28, 2014, hosted by the Bank of Latvia.  The program was organized by Jeff Frankel & Hélčne Rey.  Special guest editor: Andrew Rose.

The 36th annual ISoM met in Rome, Italy, June 21-22, 2013, hosted by the Bank of Italy.  The program was organized by Rich Clarida & Lucrezia Reichlin.    Intro.   Special guest editor:  Gita Gopinath. 

**  Selected papers are published in the Journal of International Economics, starting with this year: vol. 92, April 2014, pp.S1-S116. **

The 35th annual ISoM met in Oslo, Norway, June 15-16, 2012, hosted by Knut Mork of Handelsbanken and Steinar Holden of the University of Oslo. The program was organized by Ken West & Francesco Giavazzi.  Selected papers and comments will be published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2012 (U.Chicago Press), 2013.

The 34th annual ISoM met in Malta, June 17-18 , 2011, hosted by Gov.M.Bonello & A.deMarco of the Central Bank of Malta.  The program was organized by Jeff Frankel & Chris Pissarides.  (Introduction and summary.)    Selected papers and comments published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2011 (U.Chicago Press), 2012.   Summary.

The 33rd annual ISoM met in Amsterdam, The Netherlands, June 18-19 , 2010, hosted by Henk Brouwer 

of De Nederlandsche Bank .   The program was organized by Rich Clarida &Francesco Giavazzi.  Selected papers and comments were published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2010 (U.Chicago Press), 2011.

The 32nd annual ISoM met in Cyprus, June 12-13 , 2009, hosted by Governor Athanasios Orphanides and the Central Bank of Cyprus.   The program was organized by Ken West & Lucrezia Reichlin.     Selected papers and discussants' comments were published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2009(University of Chicago Press).       Menzie Chinn's blog has a summary.

The 31st annual ISoM met in Ljubljana, Slovenia, June 26-27 , 2008, hosted by the Central Bank of Slovenia.   The program was organized by Jeff Frankel & Chris Pissarides.   (Introduction and summary.)  Selected papers and discussants' comments were published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2008(University of Chicago Press).

The 30th annual ISoM met in Istanbul, Turkey, June 15-16 , 2007,  hosted by Erdem Basci,

 Vice Governor, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.  The program was organized by Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi.    Selected papers and discussants comments published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2007  (University of Chicago Press), 2008.

The 29th annual ISoM met in Tallinn, Estonia, June 16-17 , 2006, hosted by Märten Ross, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Estonia.  The program was organized by Lucrezia Reichlin and Ken West.   Selected papers and discussants' comments have been published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2006(University of Chicago Press), 2008,  in a companion volume to the NBER Macro Annual 2006 .

The 28th annual ISoM met in Budapest, Hungary, June 17-18 , 2005, hosted by György Szapáry, Deputy Governor, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the Central Bank of Hungary).  The program was organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Chris Pissarides.   Selected papers and discussants' comments are published in NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics 2005 (MIT Press), 2007.    Introduction.

The 27th annual ISoM met in Reykjavik, Iceland, June 18-19, 2004, hosted by Thorvaldur Gylfason at the University of Iceland, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. The program was organized by Richard Clarida and Francesco Giavazzi.    Selected papers  and discussants' comments  appear in a companion volume to the NBER Macro Annual:  NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, edited by Richard Clarida, Jeffrey Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West, 2006 (The MIT Press); Table of Contents, Summary of theme, and ordering information Summary.    Introduction.     Cover.

The 26th annual ISoM met in Barcelona, Spain, June 13-14, 2003, hosted by Jordi Gali at the Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional, of the Universitat Pompeu Fabra. The program was organized by Zvi Eckstein and Ken West.  Selected papers were published in the Journal of the European Economic Association  vol. 3, no. 5, Sept. 2005;  and others have been published in:   NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, edited by Richard Clarida, Jeffrey Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi and Kenneth West, 2006,  The MIT Press, Table of Contents, Summary and ordering information.

The 25th annual ISoM met in Frankfurt, Germany, June 14-15, 2002, hosted by Otmar Issing and Frank Smets, the European Central Bank. The program was organized by Jim Stock and Lars Svensson. Selected papers were published in the Journal of the European Economic Association vol. 1, no. 5, Sept. 2003.  Table of Contents.

The 24th annual International Seminar on Macroeconomics, organized by Jeffrey Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi, was held in Dublin, Ireland, June 8-9, 2001, hosted by Vincent Hogan, University College, Dublin.    Papers are published in the European Economic Review, vol. 46, no. 7, June 2002.  Table of Contents.


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ISoM Co-Chairs are Jeff Frankel and Francesco Giavazzi

The NBER  works with a local host in a different European country each year.   Selected proceedings are now published by the University of Chicago Press, as the NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, a companion volume to the NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Historical list of ISoM hosts and organizers, 1978-2002 Ten classic ISoM papers
IsoM Greatest Hits: Top Fifteen Highly Cited Papers of the First Twenty-Five Years (1978-2002)




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