Growth Rate Volatility
- (with Dani Rodrik and Ricardo Hausmann). This paper examines episodes of growth acceleration and their determinants. (This is also available as NBER Working Paper 10566). This paper examines the instances of "acceleration to rapid growth" and finds many instances of large growth accelerations (sustained for at least 7 years)--but also finds the usual determinants for a very poor job of predicting growth accelerations.
- A magazine summary of this article is in Development Outreach March 2005 as Initiating a Growth Boom.
- World Bank Economic Review 14(2). 2000. (WBER web site). This paper documents the medium run volatility of developing country growth and classifies countries into groups (e.g. mountains (high growth followed by negative growth, plateaus (high growth followed by stagnation), plains (consistently low or negative growth)) based on the change in their growth rates using a procedure to identify the "breaks" in the growth trends. This paper also contains warnings about the incautious use of panel econometrics to "identify" the determinants of growth.
Good Policy or Good Luck: Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks
1993 (with William Easterly, Michael Kremer, and Lawrence Summers). This is the original paper which documented the very low correlation of country growth rates over medium (10 year) to long (20 or 30 year) periods.