The China Economic Challenge: Strength, Fragility, and the Limits of Isolation

If I had to reduce the current debate about China’s economic rise to one phrase, it would be “technology trumps tariffs.” While much of our energy is consumed by familiar debates over trade wars, the deeper forces reshaping the global economy are technological change, demographic shifts, and capital flows. We are entering a period where the certainties of the past no longer hold. In such a world, humility is essential as we confront novel and contentious questions about China, technology gaps, and economic security. I offer not prescriptions but four observations on U.S.-China economic relations, each reflecting skepticism about elements of conventional wisdom in today’s strategic debates.