Conditional cash transfers provide income and promote human capital investments. Yet evaluating their longitudinal impacts is hard, as most experimental evaluations treat control locations after a few years. We examine such impacts in Indonesia after six years, where the program rollout left the experiment largely intact. We find static effects on many targeted indicators: childbirth using trained professionals increased dramatically, and under-15 children not in school fell by half. We observe impacts requiring cumulative investments: stunting fell by 23 percent. While human capital accumulation increased, the transfers did not lead to transformative economic change for recipient households.
Cahyadi, Nur, Rema Hanna, Benjamin A. Olken, Rizal Adi Prima, Elan Satriawan, and Ekki Syamsulhakim. "Cumulative Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs: Experimental Evidence From Indonesia." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 12.4 (November 2020).