During the five years from 2003 to 2007, global perceptions of risk were unusually low, as reflected in the market pricing of sovereign debt, corporate debt and options. These perceptions were wrong, as the ensuing five years have abundantly illustrated. Today, in 2012, nobody doubts that the world faces many serious economic and political risks. In the economic realm, 'shocks' – financial crises, episodes of inflation and currency depreciation, recessions, and sudden changes in world market conditions for commodities – are, by definition, unpredictable. But past shocks can serve as a guide to future risks. Cataloguing such shocks can provide insight into some of the longer-term trends signposted by previous economic or financial crises and the implications of the interplay of major economic and geopolitical factors for international strategy.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. "Economic Shocks and International Politics." Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 54.3 (June/July 2012): 29–46.