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Near New Year’s Eve, the urge to prognosticate is harder for a columnist to resist than a glass of champagne. For politics, I look to the electronic prediction markets for a shortcut to insight. For 2012, they suggest that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee, Barack Obama will win the general election, and Republicans will control both the House and Senate. While centrists might welcome divided government, a closer look at these markets implies that a more extreme outcome is likely - a one-party rule.


Glaeser, Edward L. "The Elections Predictor." Boston Globe, December 30, 2011.