Local Experience, National Media, and Misperceptions of the COVID-19 Pandemic

This paper examines conditions under which under- and overestimations about the scale of nationwide COVID-19 deaths attenuate. From May through November 2020, more than a quarter of Americans thought there would be fewer COVID-19 deaths by year’s end than had already occurred at the time of their interview; nearly one-in-ten thought there would be over 1 million COVID-19 deaths, a toll that was not reached until May 2022. We develop a theory that high national media attention to the pandemic and high local coronavirus incidence jointly attenuate misperceptions. Evidence from a large-n survey, county-level COVID-19 incidence data, and text analysis of national news outlets partially supports this theory: when activated by national media attention, local experience attenuates underestimations and, to a lesser degree, overestimations. However, in the absence of local experience, national media attention exacerbates underestimations. We also show that underestimations about the COVID-19 pandemic are personally and politically consequential. This paper advances understanding of conditions under which factual misperceptions may be attenuated and of the interplay between local experience and national media attention.