Policy solutions to better assess progress toward Paris goals given warming-induced ecosystem emissions, which shorten timelines by 2–5 years

Achievement of climate goals is facilitated by accurate estimation and reporting of all human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. While direct emissions are nationally tracked, climate warming is driving increasing emissions from ecosystems like thawing permafrost—these indirect emissions often fall into a quantification “blind spot.” When added to direct emissions, these indirect emissions reduce the remaining time toward breaching the Paris temperature goals by ~25%. There are policy avenues to enable better reporting. IPCC reporting guidelines should recognize and incorporate these sources. While that is pursued, action via independent coalitions and dedicated discussions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is feasible. Success is further enabled by improvements in Earth system modeling. Ultimately, reporting frameworks need to address this blind spot so we capture the full scope of human emissions—creating better data for achieving climate ambitions.