This paper identifies emerging trends in the world economy during the next decade. The first is that China will overtake the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), ending more than a century of U.S. leadership as the world's largest economy. The second is that Developing Asia, excluding Japan, will overtake the G7, a group of the seven largest industrialized economies established in 1975–76. Finally, India will overtake Japan, Russia will overtake Germany, and Brazil will overtake the U.K., leading to a New World Economic Order: China, the U.S., India, Japan, Russia, Germany, and Brazil.


Jorgenson, Dale W. "The Rise of Developing Asia and the New Economic Order." Journal of Policy Modeling 33.5 (September/October 2011): 698-745.