fbpx Selective Exposure Partly Relies on Faulty Affective Forecasts | Harvard Kennedy School

HKS Authors

See citation below for complete author information.

Abstract

People preferentially consume information that aligns with their prior beliefs, contributing to polarization and undermining democracy. Five studies (collective N?=?2455) demonstrate that such “selective exposure” partly stems from faulty affective forecasts. Specifically, political partisans systematically overestimate the strength of negative affect that results from exposure to opposing views. In turn, these incorrect forecasts drive information consumption choices. Clinton voters overestimated the negative affect they would experience from watching President Trump’s Inaugural Address (Study 1) and from reading statements written by Trump voters (Study 2). Democrats and Republicans overestimated the negative affect they would experience from listening to speeches by opposing-party senators (Study 3). People’s tendency to underestimate the extent to which they agree with opponents’ views drove the affective forecasting error. Finally, correcting biased affective forecasts reduced selective exposure by 24–34% (Studies 4 and 5).

Citation

Dorison, Charles A., Julia A. Minson, and Todd Rogers. "Selective Exposure Partly Relies on Faulty Affective Forecasts." Cognition (Spring 2019).