Trustworthy Elections

There is widespread concern that public trust in elections is under threat in America and many other parts of the world. This development is believed to heighten risks to voter participation, civic engagement, and feelings of political legitimacy and, in the most severe cases, catalyze contentious outcomes, election-related violence, and democratic backsliding. Attitudes toward electoral integrity matter for political behavior and system stability. But are judgments well founded? Citizens’ evaluations of elections can be regarded as broadly rational, informed, and accurate where they coincide with independent evidence of electoral performance. But errors of public assessments can occur. In some cases, cynical citizens may erroneously believe that free and fair contests are fraudulent, exemplified in America by MAGA conspiratorial beliefs in the “Big Lie.” And in still other cases, however, notably in states like Russia, credulous citizens may mistakenly believe that manipulated contests are, in fact, legitimate. This chapter explores how far any such errors are conditioned by three factors: (a) education, as a proxy for civic knowledge and skills; (b) the use of legacy and social media; and (c) information cues arising from the media landscape and access to information in society. Section 1 outlines the theoretical framework. Section 2 describes sources of evidence. Mass surveys of electoral attitudes are matched with independent electoral performance indicators in almost one hundred country-years worldwide during the last decade. Section 3 presents the results. The conclusion summarizes the key findings, including the importance of access to information, and considers their broader implications.