Jeffrey Frankel Photo

Jeffrey Frankel

Appointment
James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth
Office Address
79 John F. Kennedy St. Littauer Bldg 217
617-496-3834
Frankel, Jeffrey A. "US will Lack Fiscal Space to Respond when Next Recession Comes." The Guardian, August 28, 2018.

Abstract

The US economy is doing well. But the next recession – and there is always another recession – could be very bad. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 reached 4.1% – the highest since the 4.9% achieved under President Barack Obama in 2014. Another year of growth will match the record 10-year expansion of the 1990s. Add to that low unemployment and things are looking good. But this cannot continue forever. Given massive global corporate debt and a soaring US stock market – the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is high by historical standards – one possible trigger for a downturn in the coming years is a negative shock that could send securities tumbling.