Following months of fighting to defeat Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi, Libya’s rebels are steadily consolidating power following their victory. As a settlement to Libya’s civil war, this is potentially very good news. Research on civil war shows that conflicts that end in decisive rebel victory are four times more likely to result in lasting peace than those concluded by a negotiated settlement. However, because the rebel victory in Libya came about so quickly, and as a result of foreign intervention, long-term stability may be harder to achieve.


Toft, Monica Duffy. "Why a Rebel Victory in Libya is Better than a Negotiated Settlement." Christian Science Monitor, September 13, 2011.