Xi doubles down on state-led growth

China’s 15th Five-Year Plan reinforces President Xi Jinping’s vision of a high-tech, securitised economy driven by state-led investment in frontier technologies. While this strategy has delivered gains in advanced manufacturing and innovation, it largely sidelines long-promised structural reforms, including boosting consumption and addressing inequality. The model remains heavily reliant on state intervention, risking inefficiencies and fiscal strain. Globally, China’s continued trade surpluses and push to set technological standards are likely to reshape international competition.