The Looming Crisis in Long-term Health Care

Americans are living longer. In 2006, there were an estimated 37 million Americans 65 and older – 2 percent of the population. By 2030, it's estimated at 71.5 million people will be 65 and older – almost 20 percent of the population, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.

With an aging population, demand for health care will grow and the proportion of people paying for that care will shrink.

This research team examines arrangements for ensuring and financing long-term health care in the United States and the thesis that conditions are ripe for a financial and humanitarian crisis. Among the elements of policy solutions this team is studying are changes to federal and state tax rules and expansion of the supply of informal care.

Publications & Related Links

Stevenson DG. 2008. Planning for the future—long-term care and the 2008 election. New England Journal of Medicine. May 8; 358(19):1985-7.
Working paper: Stevenson DG, Frank RG, and Hsu J. Private long-term care insurance and state tax incentives. Inquiry. Forthcoming.

Working paper: Stevenson DG and Garfield RL. Intergovernmental Challenges and Opportunities in Long-Term Care. Submitted.

Working paper: Brian Burwell, Marc Cohen, David Stevenson, and Eileen Tell. Is Private Long-Term Care Insurance a Public Policy Failure? Submitted.

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